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2007年4月18日 星期三

賽門的AGLOCO獲利分析報告(三)

(原文見http://simmonsreport.spaces.live.com/

評估價值:

為了使評估變得較確定和容易理解,我將評估時間定在AGLOCO第二年年底(大約2008年12月),並假設AGLOCO在那時候已經有兩百萬以上活躍用戶。當然,每個用戶的預期利潤可能從200美元到300美元,其中有100美元的差距(To make this a bit stable and understandable, the time for valuation chosen was the end of year two for AGLOCO (approximately December 2008) and with AGLOCO having two million or more active users at that time. Also the projected revenue was reduce from the $200 to $300 per user range to $100 (again to be conservative))

.比較過市場後,這個將增長200萬用戶的社群,將為每個用戶帶來100美元的利潤,且會增長至200、300、或400美元,其邊際收益也會有70%主要以現金分給用戶,這是相當大的價值(Given mreket comprisons, a growing community of two million users with revenue above $100 per user and heading toward $200, $300 or $400 per user and a profit margin of 70% prior to cash distrivutions to users should have a sizeable value)。總之,每個用戶會有200到1000美元,這還要看用戶成長速率,用戶收益成長率而定。這個夏天,估計每個用戶最低也會有200美元的價值(With very little per user revenue Facebook valuation was near the $200 amount this summer)。即使是Myspace也沒有多少收入,而且它被併購時還是虧錢。Youtube的情況也是跟Myspace差不多。

.在將現金配給用戶後,還會有15%到20%的邊際效益,每個用戶每個月會有15到40美元的收入,也就是每年至少有300美元的收入。

AGLOCO屬於廣告和銷售/配送業,然而其毛利與Yahoo和Google接近(AGLOCO is in the advertising and sale/distribution business - somewhat similar gross profits of Yahoo and Google)。Yahoo和Google都擁有比其收入高過35倍的評價,以此類推,每位用戶在AGLOCO都將價值350美元到1400美元(Yahoo and Google both have valuations exceeding 35 times earnings. A 35 times profit per user would value AGLOCO at $350 to $1400 per user)。Yahoo評估其價值有利潤的6倍,而Google的則有其16倍。以此類推AGLOCO的用戶,即便是以最低的假設:第二年年底每個用戶每月收益有100美元的假設下,每個AGLOCO的用戶都將會其帶來600美元的價值(Yahoo has a value of 6 times revenue and Google has a value of 16 timesrevenue. Even at the lower estimate of $100 of annualized revenue per user at the end of the second year, the corresponding value ofAGLOCO would be $600 per user)

.如果以每個用戶為此帶來300美元價值,總共有200萬用戶的條件下,AGLOCO會擁有6億身價。對於一個新穎、公平的公共公司而言這是個好界限(With a $300 per user valuation and 2 million users, AGLOCO would have a total valuation of $600 million. A good range to be in for a fairly new public company)
.估計AGLOCO網站文宣,大約有一半是連結到活躍用戶的,而還有約一半是連結到建立網絡的推薦人的(Per the AGLOCO website statements, about half of the AGLOCO ownership is given directly to active users and about half is given to the refferers who vuild up the network)。如果每個用戶平均有300美元的價值,每個一般用戶會帶來150美元的價值給AGLOCO的擁有者,當然,越早開始運作的人會擁有比平均更高的價值,而越晚加入的則相反(With a $300 per usr valuation the average each regular user would have been given $150 worth of ownership in AGLOCO (of course people who started earlier would have more than average and people who started later less))
.這也意味著,推薦人(平均)能得到150美元的股份,再次強調越早加入的推薦人就會得到越多。AGLOCO用戶最多可推薦五代的推薦人,因此150美元會平均分到五代的推薦人之間,每代都有30美元(There are five levels of referrals in the AGLOCO user referral system, so the $150 is split equally etween five levels of referrers, $30 each)

很顯然結果是:每個AGLOCO用戶的推薦網絡中,每個被推薦人將從AGLOCO擁有者的總價值中,為其網絡帶來30美元的價值,外加上AGLOCO每個月會付給所有用戶的現金回饋(This result is simple stated as: For each refeeral in an AGLOCO user's total referral network, a person should receive $30 in AGLOCO ownership value (plus a share in the AGLOCO monthly cash distributions to all users))。因為每個用戶真的能給他們自己的個人推薦人帶來最好的效果,發掘彼此的潛在價值,這一點很重要,所以我們應該要理解(Since a user can really best affect their own personal referrals, figuring out the 'potential' value of each of those is important to understand)

.很明顯的,如果一個用戶推薦一位新用戶,而且第二個人並沒有邀約其他人,那麼這位新的直接推薦人只為你帶來總計30美元的價值。
.而相反的,如果一個用戶推薦一位非常活躍的AGLOCO用戶,且他又為你推薦了1,000位新用戶,那麼這位新的推薦人將價值30,000美元。
.為了方便估計,我們得先猜測每個用戶的平均推薦率。以一個相對的觀點,觀察有關AGLOCO用戶的部落格,我們發現每個新用戶大約平均會推薦3個新用戶(To make some kind of estimate of value it is necessary to 'guess' an average referral rate. Looking at blogs about AGLOCO from users a conservative view would seem to be to choose an average of three new referrals every new user)
.依據三個推薦人的假設,每個直接推薦人底下結果會有總計120位新用戶,假設每個推薦人有30美元的價值,120位就有3600美元,再加上直接推薦人本身就有3630美元(Using three referrals at each level results in each direct referral resulting in 120 new users. Using the $30 valuation for each referral the total value for the 120 is $3600; plus $30 for the direct user for a total value of $3630)

如果不考量此分析,我們也可以大概猜出每個月的配額,請注意此部份是為應本報告的某些早期評估對象要求而補充的(While not a focus of this analysis, a quick calculation of the monthly distributions might be estimated (This part was added at the request of some early reviewers of this report))

.根據每個用戶有200美元毛利,且收入有60%會分給用戶的前提下,每個用戶年收入會是120美元,即每個月大約10美元,這部份是在擁有者獲益後額外添加的(Using the $200 per user gross revenue and the 60% payout percentage then the annual run rate would be $120 (about $10 per month. This would be in addition to teh ownership received))。而年收益100美元亦即每個月5美元,年收益300美元則是每個月15美元。

最後,使用本評估分析前尚須注意以下幾點:

.很明顯的,想要加入像AGLOCO這樣的實業體的用戶,最終都會碰到極限,也因此,屆時推薦的效果不會非常顯著,且新的直接推薦人也不可能再找到100個新用戶。基於這點,直接推薦人的價值不會很高,但是就數量超過一億的美國成年網路用戶而言,即便是取其中的兩百萬,組織發展即便再過兩年也不至於碰到瓶頸(Obviously, eventually all the users who want to join an entity like AGLOCO will be exhausted so referring will not be very significant and new direct referrals will not result in 100 total new user. At that point, direct referrals would not be so valuable (but with more than 100,000,000 adult US internet users alone, getting to two million in the US should not hit any limits in the next two years))
.不同國家的用戶可能有不同的潛在收益,也因而有不同的價值,AGLOCO方面則宣稱AGLOCO有權力,於必要時針對個別國家片面更改回饋利率。

其他分析資料來源:

.Yahoo、Google、Microsoft、Fox,和網路廣告市場的研究報告。Mary Meeker著,摩根.史坦利(Morgan Stanley),貝爾.史帝芬斯(Bear Stevens),J.P. 摩根(JP Morgan)和梅樂里.林區(Merrily Lynch)出版。
.線上報告部份,包含:John Battelle,Internet Advertising Bureau,Mazenarra,TNS Media Intelligence,和TechCrunch。

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